Andhra Pradesh likely to see early onset of monsoon this year

Visakhapatnam: The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Andhra Pradesh coast, four to five days earlier than the normal onset date of June 4. Early onset of the monsoon will help to begin kharif crops sowingoperation early.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that monsoon this year is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 27, roughly four days earlier than normal. The advance of the monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala. It normally arrives in Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of seven days.Last year, the monsoon hit Andhra Pradesh on June 2, two days ahead of schedule.In 2023, the monsoon arrived in Andhra Pradesh on June 11 and in 2022, the monsoon arrived in the state on June 13. Andhra Pradesh receives at least around 70 percent of its annual rainfall during the June-Sep (southwest monsoon) period and the rainfall during these four months replenish the reservoir stocks, groundwater reserves and vital for rain-fed kharif cultivation in the state.According to IMD, in the past eleven years (2014-2024), Andhra Pradesh recorded deficient rainfall in 2014, 2018 and 2023 during the Southwest monsoon period. The cumulative rainfall deficiency stands at 18.4 per cent in 2014, 10 per cent in 2018 and 13 per cent in 2023. Andhra Pradesh recorded above-normal rainfall during the Southwest monsoon in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 and 2024.The state had received 21 per cent of excess rainfall during the south-west monsoon (June 1 to Sep 30) in 2024. The state received a cumulative rainfall of 629.2 mm rainfall against the normal of 521.6 mm. Good rains in every district in the state increased sowing of kharif crops in 2024.The monsoon is very likely to advance into the south Andaman Sea, some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands around May 13. It is likely to further advance over some parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives, some parts of south Bay of Bengal, entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea, and some parts of central Bay of Bengal during subsequent 4-5 days."This year, the monsoon could make its way to Kerala in the last week of May, marking a possible early onset over Andhra Pradesh coast," said S Karuna Sagar, scientist at IMD-Amaravati. After the onset of the monsoon in the AP, it will take five to seven days for the monsoon to spread the entire state, he added.Andhra Pradesh will experience above-normal cumulative rainfall this monsoon, the IMD predicted on April 15. This is the second consecutive year when IMD has forecast above normal rainfall in its first Long Range Forecast for the southwest monsoon season.