How secure are Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?

With Operation Sindoor, India has sent a strong and clear message to Pakistan: it can no longer use its nuclear capabilities as a shield to protect terrorists.Defence minister Rajnath Singh, speaking to Indian troops in Srinagar on May 15, condemned Pakistan’s repeated nuclear threats, a sentiment echoed earlier by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.“The whole world has seen how irresponsibly Pakistan has given nuclear threats to India several times,” Singh said, adding, “Are nuclear weapons safe in the hands of such an irresponsible and rogue nation?”Singh urged the international community to place Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog.While IAEA and New Delhi have dismissed claims of a radiation leak from Pakistan’s nuclear facility — seen by some as the main trigger for the ceasefire between the two nations — some Western media reports suggested Indian missiles struck Kirana Hills in Pakistan’s Sargodha district during Operation Sindoor, causing a radioactive incident.India and Pakistan signed the ‘India-Pakistan Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack Against Nuclear Installations and Facilities’ in 1988, committing to non-attacks on nuclear sites. medium nocaptionhttps://eoh.ikan3.com/3sw658_7hzteqpqoj/1ka6Tv-W3feOy2?2qxpm=9nquG5Y9PQWGAFcOwydBid does Pak lack a clear nuke doctrine?Pakistan and India are among the nine nuclear-armed nations in the world and possess almost equal numbers of nukes — 170 and 164, respectively. But Islamabad has never formally announced an official doctrine since conducting nuclear tests in 1998.In 2001, Khalid Kidwai — then head of the Strategic Plans Division under the National Command Authority — spelled out four red lines for potential nuclear use: significant territorial loss, destruction of vital military assets, economic strangulation, or severe political destabilisation.A year later, then-President Pervez Musharraf emphasised that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were directed solely at India and would only be used if “the very existence of Pakistan as a state” faced a threat.India has never considered threatening the survival of Pakistan though, according to experts.Pakistan’s nuclear posture has progressively shifted towards the development of tactical nuclear weapons intended for battlefield use. Tactical nukes blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare, increasing the likelihood of escalation.These low-yield weapons, which are primarily aimed at deterring India’s conventional military superiority, have raised concerns among policymakers globally. How does the West view Pakistan?Over the years, successive US governments have expressed concern over the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.In a remark aimed at Pakistan, then-US president Barack Obama in March 2012 said the world cannot allow non-state actors and terrorists to get their hands on nuclear weapons and end up destroying cities.“We can’t afford to have non-state actors and terrorists to get their hands on nuclear weapons that would end up destroying our cities or harming our citizens,” Obama told reporters in the presence of then-Pakistan prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani before the two leaders held private talks on the sidelines of a nuclear summit in Seoul.The Obama administration played a central role in the hunt for and ultimate killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011. The al Qaeda founder and 9/11 mastermind was found hiding in a “safe house” in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad, an episode that was a major embarrassment for Islamabad and its military.The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment quoted then-US Director of National Intelligence Daniel R Coats as saying, “Pakistan continues to develop new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles.”He noted that “the new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region”.The Trump administration echoed this assessment in 2018: “We are particularly concerned by the development of tactical nuclear weapons that are designed for use on the battlefield. We believe that these systems are more susceptible to terrorist theft and increase the likelihood of nuclear exchange in the region.”Trump’s successor Joe Biden in 2022 described Pakistan as “one of the most dangerous nations in the world” because of its “nuclear weapons without cohesion”, reflecting long-standing fears about the command, control, and safety of its arsenal. Security breaches and insider threatsSecurity lapses have punctuated Pakistan’s nuclear journey. On January 9, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) abducted 17 employees from a uranium mining facility in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Although some were released quickly, the incident highlighted the vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s nuclear workforce.Past terror attacks have targeted nuclear-linked facilities, including a 2008 suicide bombing at the Wah Cantonment that killed over 70 ordnance factory employees, besides attacks on Kamra Airbase in 2007 and 2012.A 2018 suicide bombing near Attock also killed Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) employees, underscoring recurring terrorist threats to nuclear infrastructure. mediumhttps://eoh.ikan3.com/3sw658_7hzteqpqoj/1ka9UvArwKnXLC?2qxpm=KHJfoA1F5KWhhYtTWhat%E2%80%99s the structure of Pak’s nuke authority?Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme is governed by a structured command-and-control architecture led by the National Command Authority (NCA). Chaired by the prime minister, the NCA includes top civilian ministers and military chiefs.The Strategic Plans Division (SPD), the NCA’s executive arm, handles policy, doctrine, deployment, and operations. Launch authority requires consensus within the NCA, and operational control remains centralised.Each military service has its own strategic command, but all movements are vetted through SPD protocols. The 2010 NCA Act criminalises information leaks and authorises rigorous personnel checks to reduce insider threats.Can it rein in rogue elements?Since the 1980s, Pakistan has witnessed the rise of various terrorist and militant organisations — some homegrown, others transnational. Many were originally backed by the state during the Soviet-Afghan war and later redirected towards India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. These include Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen.Over time, these groups have radicalised Pakistani society and contributed to multiple crises — like the 2001-02 military standoff following the terror attack on India’s Parliament, 2008 Mumbai attacks, and 2019 Pulwama attack.The AQ Khan (the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme) network, which illegally shared nuclear technology with North Korea, Iran, and Libya, has severely damaged Pakistan’s credibility. Though Khan was placed under house arrest, the episode exposed deep flaws in Islamabad’s nuclear oversight.The continuing political instability in Pakistan marked by frequent changes in civilian governments and a powerful military establishment raises fears about who really controls the nuclear button and whether civilian oversight is strong enough.